tour archive ·Sphere Residency '26Apr 16 – May 2· wrappedSummer Tour '26Jul 7 – Sep 6· wrappedFall Tour '26Oct 2 – 11· upcomingRiviera Maya '27Jan 27 – 30· upcomingwrapped · scoring final
postmortem · the algorithm files its findings
The algorithm studied 317 shows. Phish wrote twenty-one more it had never seen.
Summer Tour '26 · 21 nights · 63 slot calls (set-1 opener, set-2 opener, encore), re-rolled every morning from what had already been played. The model studied. Phish improvised. Here's the gap.
Jul 7 – Sep 6, 2026 · 9 venues · Madison to Commerce City · callingit.live/wrap/summer-26
§ 01the scorecard
2 of 63 slot calls landed. One more got half credit. On most nights, Phish was unrecognizable to the model. One night it was half-recognizable.
Three picks per night, re-rolled each morning from what had already been played. Twenty-one nights. Every cell below is one slot the model called: green where the model and Phish lined up, amber for half credit, faint where the model was somewhere else entirely.
2 nailed. 73 in the right set. +31 in the right show.
Strict scoring only pays the inner ring: exact song in the opener or closer slot. The middle ring is right show, right set, wrong slot, a real call, just not where the rubric pays. The outer ring is right show, anywhere.
exact slot
2/ 63
right set
75/ 420
right show
106/ 420
tier 1 · slot calls landed
✓ landed
Night 4 · Encore · model confidence 73% · +27 pts
pickedTweezer Reprise
Tweezer Reprise to close the encore at 73% model confidence: the most confident call the model made all summer, and the only one that landed exactly. A 33-minute Tweezer in set 2 had made the Reprise close to a certainty by 10:45pm. The model is claiming foresight anyway.
✓ landed
Night 1 · Encore · model confidence 39% · +30 pts
pickedSlave to the Traffic Light
phish playedSlave > S.A.N.T.O.S.
Slave to the Traffic Light as the encore, 39% confidence, on opening night in Madison. Phish opened the encore with it and tagged Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. on the end. Same shape as the Sphere's closing-night Wading: right song, first song of the encore, a slot call that landed.
◐ half credit
Night 12 · Encore · model confidence 27% · +37 pts
pickedBig Black Furry Creature from Mars
phish playedHorse > Silent > BBFCFM > Antelope
Big Black Furry Creature from Mars in the encore at the Garden, an 89-show gap, which the model landed on in its morning-of roll after six other ideas. Phish put it third in a four-song encore, between Silent in the Morning and Antelope. In the encore, not the closer. Half credit, full surprise.
tier 2 · right show · right set
N1
set 1✓ Free·✓ Back on the Train
encore✓ Slave to the Traffic Light
N2
set 1✓ Sigma Oasis· model had pos 3 · Phish opened with it
set 2✓ Twist
N3
set 1✓ Wolfman's Brother·✓ Tube
set 2✓ Down with Disease
N4
set 1✓ Theme from the Bottom·✓ Reba
set 2✓ Carini·✓ Tweezer· exact position 2·✓ Everything's Right· model had pos 5 · Phish opened with it
N5
set 1✓ 46 Days· model had pos 2 · Phish opened with it·✓ Bathtub Gin·✓ Stash·✓ Maze·✓ Rift·✓ Evolve
set 2✓ Light·✓ Also Sprach Zarathustra·✓ Simple· model had pos 5 · Phish opened with it
encore✓ Wilson· exact position 1
N6
set 1✓ Steam·✓ Gumbo
set 2✓ Piper
N7
set 1✓ Divided Sky·✓ Halley's Comet· exact position 7
N8
set 2✓ A Wave of Hope·✓ Fuego
N10
set 1✓ The Moma Dance·✓ Back on the Train·✓ Possum
set 2✓ Ruby Waves·✓ No Men In No Man's Land
N11
set 1✓ Sigma Oasis· exact position 6
set 2✓ Everything's Right·✓ What's the Use?
N12
set 1✓ AC/DC Bag·✓ Stash· exact position 5·✓ Reba
encore✓ Big Black Furry Creature from Mars
N13
set 1✓ Tube·✓ Bathtub Gin·✓ Maze
set 2✓ Chalk Dust Torture· exact position 2
N14
set 1✓ Wolfman's Brother·✓ Rift
set 2✓ Tweezer·✓ Down with Disease
N15
set 1✓ Theme from the Bottom·✓ Halley's Comet
N17
set 1✓ Back on the Train·✓ Kill Devil Falls
set 2✓ Fuego·✓ A Wave of Hope·✓ Run Like an Antelope
N18
set 1✓ Sand·✓ Sigma Oasis·✓ Stash
set 2✓ Ruby Waves· exact position 2·✓ Light
N19
set 1✓ Wolfman's Brother·✓ Tube
set 2✓ Down with Disease
N20
set 1✓ The Moma Dance·✓ Free·✓ Back on the Train
set 2✓ Chalk Dust Torture
encore✓ Carini
N21
set 1✓ Blaze On·✓ Ghost· model had pos 10 · Phish opened with it
set 2✓ Everything's Right
tier 3 · right show · wrong set
N1
◐ Chalk Dust Torture· model had it in set 2 · Phish put it in set 1
N2
◐ Possum· model had it in the encore · Phish put it in set 2
N5
◐ More· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N6
◐ Split Open and Melt· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N7
◐ Ghost· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N8
◐ Character Zero· model had it in the encore · Phish put it in set 1
N8
◐ Harry Hood· model had it in the encore · Phish put it in set 2
N9
◐ Free· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N9
◐ Run Like an Antelope· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in the encore
N10
◐ Oblivion· model had it in set 2 · Phish put it in set 1
N10
◐ First Tube· model had it in set 2 · Phish put it in the encore
N11
◐ Blaze On· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N12
◐ Bouncing Around the Room· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N12
◐ Weekapaug Groove· model had it in the encore · Phish put it in set 2
N13
◐ Fluffhead· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in the encore
N13
◐ Suzy Greenberg· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N14
◐ Simple· model had it in set 2 · Phish put it in set 1
N14
◐ Cavern· model had it in the encore · Phish put it in set 2
N15
◐ Free· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N15
◐ Wilson· model had it in set 2 · Phish put it in set 1
N16
◐ Character Zero· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N16
◐ You Enjoy Myself· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N17
◐ Carini· model had it in the encore · Phish put it in set 1
N17
◐ What's Going Through Your Mind· model had it in the encore · Phish put it in set 2
N18
◐ Ghost· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N18
◐ No Men In No Man's Land· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N18
◐ Possum· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N18
◐ Tweezer· model had it in set 2 · Phish put it in set 1
N19
◐ 46 Days· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
N19
◐ Run Like an Antelope· model had it in the encore · Phish put it in set 2
N20
◐ Tweezer· model had it in set 1 · Phish put it in set 2
§ 03right song · wrong night
The model called these at the wrong moment.
Right song, wrong night entirely, or right family, different song. Doesn't fit the right-show tiers in §02; still worth printing.
right song · wrong night
Oblivion
N3 · model had it opening set 2 on N10 and N17 → actual: N3 · Set 2 opener
The model called Oblivion to open set 2 twice, on N10 and N17. Phish opened set 2 with it once, on N3, a week before the model started asking. Then it played Oblivion in set 1 on N10 and N19 while the model kept it in set 2.
right song · wrong night
Carini
N10 · model had it opening N3, and opening set 2 on N4 → actual: N10 · Set 2 opener · 40:04
Carini opened a show (N17), opened a set 2 (N10, for 40 minutes), and closed an encore (N20). The model called it to open N3 and to open set 2 on N4. Neither landed. It did have Carini in the N20 encore, so the tour ended with the model and Carini roughly on speaking terms.
right song · wrong night
Mike's Song
N12 · model had it opening set 2 on N7, and opening N8 and N11 → actual: N12 and N18 · Set 2 opener
Mike's Song opened set 2 twice, at the Garden and at Fenway. The model had it opening set 2 on N7 in Savannah, and opening the show on N8 and N11. Right instinct about where Mike's lives. Off by a stand or two.
right song · wrong night
Tweezer Reprise
N9 · model called it to close N3, N4 and N9, above 70% each time → actual: closed N4, N14, N18 and N21
The model called Tweezer Reprise to close on N3, N4 and N9, at over 70% confidence each time. Phish closed with it on N4, N14, N18 and N21. One overlap. The model has been asked to stop treating a set-2 Tweezer as a promise, and has declined.
§ 04when phish was phish
50 songs that missed an entire tour cycle. Eight worth printing.
Songs ranked by gap: shows since the last play. A real bustout means the song skipped a full tour (~30+ shows) before resurfacing. Nine different 500-plus-show bustouts in one summer, five of them over a thousand, most of them in five nights at the Garden. The bigger the number, the louder the model is saying nothing.
01
2052
shows
Melt the Guns
N17 · Set 2, position 3
2,052 shows. An XTC cover last heard in the eighties, played for 16 minutes at Fenway, then again at Dick's four nights from the end. The biggest gap of the summer. The model's catalog lists it with a handful of career plays and had, reasonably, filed it under never.
02
1469
shows
Cold as Ice
N12 · Set 1, position 6
1,469 shows. Thirty-four seconds of Foreigner in the middle of set 1 on the first night at the Garden. The model does not have a feature for a 34-second Foreigner song, and after this summer it still doesn't.
03
1171
shows
Big Ball Jam
N13 · Set 1, position 11
1,171 shows. The giant beach balls came back to MSG. The model's catalog has Big Ball Jam filed under early nineties, do not expect. Phish expected it.
04
1028
shows
The Vibration of Life
N12 · Set 1, position 14
1,028 shows. A seven-beats-per-second frequency inside a David Bowie sandwich, on the same night as Cold as Ice, Love You and Hold Your Head Up. Four songs over 130 shows deep in one set. The model had never seen it and, to be fair, neither had most of the room.
05
1022
shows
Suspicious Minds
N16 · Set 2, position 15
1,022 shows. Fishman's Elvis, with Hold Your Head Up as the exit music, deep in the last Garden set 2, two songs before a 31-minute Crosseyed. The model's confidence for that stretch of the set was 35%, on a different song, from a different decade of the catalog.
06
928
shows
Johnny B. Goode
N15 · Set 2, position 6
928 shows. Chuck Berry second-to-last in set 2 at the Garden, then Free to close. The model had Free in set 1 that night. Right night, wrong set, and no Chuck Berry anywhere on its sheet.
07
660
shows
Highway to Hell
N14 · Set 2 opener
660 shows. AC/DC to open set 2, then a Tweezer that swallowed five other songs. The model had Simple opening that set at 32%. Simple had opened a set 2 nine nights earlier, so the model was not wrong so much as late.
08
226
shows
Glide
N12 · Set 1 opener
226 shows. Glide to open the Garden run. The model had AC/DC Bag at 36%, which Phish had already used to open N4. The first note of the five-night stand was a song the model had not predicted for any night of the tour.
§ 05the super card
Tour-wide bets the model placed on itself: 2 of 6.
Six props. Two hits. The model is very pleased about the covers, and would prefer not to discuss Harpua.
Unique songs across the tour
· under (predicted 157)· 191
The model's pre-tour sheet ran 157 unique songs, so it took the under. Phish played 191 different songs in 21 shows, 50 of them at a 30-plus-show gap. The model did not have a feature for a five-night Garden run treated as a bustout festival.
✗ miss
Will there be a Phish debut?
· no· none
Zero Phish debuts in 21 shows. The model can't predict debuts, so it always says no, and this summer no was right. It is taking the win.
✓ hit
Will Harpua be played?
· no· yes · N16 · MSG · 117-show gap
Forbin's > Mockingbird > Harpua at the Garden on N16. The model's Harpua stance is a hard-coded no. It was a hard-coded no at the Sphere too, and won there. The people's bustout evens the series.
✗ miss
Will a cover close any encore?
· yes· yes · five of them
Rocky Top (N3), Fire (N6), Rock and Roll (N7), Izabella (N8) and Loving Cup (N15) all closed encores. Purple Rain and A Day in the Life opened two more. The model's one confident summer bet, and it paid.
✓ hit
Which night has the longest single song?
· N1· N10 · Carini · 40:04
Verified via phish.in. The longest single performance of the summer was the 40-minute Carini that opened set 2 in Columbia. The model's jam-score heuristic picked opening night, which topped out at a 25-minute Fuego. Off by nine nights and fifteen minutes.
✗ miss
Tour closer (final song of the final encore)
· Clear Your Mind· Tweezer Reprise
The model's pre-tour bet for the last song of the last night was Clear Your Mind. Its final roll, the morning of the show, said I Always Wanted It This Way. Phish closed the summer with Tweezer Reprise, which the model had called for three other encores. The algorithm has been informed.
✗ miss
✉ suggest a prop
Got a tour-wide bet the model should be forced to take next time? Send it to hello@callingit.live. We'll read it, fight about it, and probably print it on the super card.
§ 06the jam report
19 epic jams. Seventeen of 21 nights peaked in set 2.
Phish played 366 songs across 21 nights, counting every leg of every sandwich. 160 of them broke 10 minutes. 68 broke 15. 19 broke 20. The longest song of the night landed in set 2 on 17 of 21 nights. Set 2 averaged 12:12 per song, set 1 averaged 9:33. The model didn't predict any of this.
songs ≥ 10 min
160
of 366 · 44%
songs ≥ 15 min
68
of 366 · 19%
songs ≥ 20 min
19
epic territory
top 10 jams of the tour
0140:04CariniN10 · Set 2
0237:44SimpleN5 · Set 2
0336:26You Enjoy MyselfN16 · Set 2
0435:18Down with DiseaseN19 · Set 2
0533:19TweezerN4 · Set 2
0631:36Crosseyed and PainlessN16 · Set 2
0731:27Split Open and MeltN6 · Set 2
0829:07The WedgeN7 · Set 1
0928:57DrownedN15 · Set 2
1025:42You Enjoy MyselfN3 · Set 2
longest jam per night · 17 of 21 in set 2
N1
Fuego
25:25
N2
Sigma Oasis
19:19
N3
You Enjoy Myself
25:42
N4
Tweezer
33:19
N5
Simple
37:44
N6
Split Open and Melt
31:27
N7
The Wedge
29:07
N8
Fuego
21:45
N9
Life Saving Gun
24:23
N10
Carini
40:04
N11
Sand
18:33
N12
Bouncing Around the Room
17:44
N13
Bathtub Gin
17:58
N14
Simple
20:04
N15
Drowned
28:57
N16
You Enjoy Myself
36:26
N17
What's Going Through Your Mind
19:40
N18
Ruby Waves
17:59
N19
Down with Disease
35:18
N20
What's Going Through Your Mind
24:11
N21
Fuego
20:35
§ 07the architecture of the run
17 of 21 nights peaked in set 2.
Strip the song names away and a shape repeats. Almost every night the band built one long Type II departure, a jam that leaves the written song behind and holds an open, escalating peak, and almost always landed it in set 2. The model studies which songs get played. This is the other half: which plays became the moment.
peak of the tourCarini40:06N10 · Set 2 · 2026-07-19
The longest jam of the run, and its center of gravity. 40 minutes that started as a song and ended somewhere else entirely.
the suspended peak, night by night
N1Fuego25:24Set 2
N2Sigma Oasis19:18Set 1
N3You Enjoy Myself25:42Set 2
N4Tweezer33:18Set 2
N5Simple37:42Set 2
N6Split Open and Melt31:24Set 2
N7The Wedge29:06Set 1
N8Fuego21:42Set 2
N9Life Saving Gun24:24Set 2
N10Carini40:06Set 2
N11Sand18:30Set 2
N12Bouncing Around the Room17:42Set 2
N13Bathtub Gin18:00Set 1
N14Simple20:06Set 1
N15Drowned28:54Set 2
N16You Enjoy Myself36:24Set 2
N17What's Going Through Your Mind19:42Set 2
N18Ruby Waves18:00Set 2
N19Down with Disease35:18Set 2
N20What's Going Through Your Mind24:12Set 2
N21Fuego20:36Set 2
§ 08the covers vault
47 covers in 21 nights. 12 artists got two or more.
The model has no per-show cover prediction. It bet "yes" on the cover-closed-encore prop and won five times over. It did not see this much Talking Heads, Hendrix, or Beatles coming, and it definitely did not see Foreigner. 10 covers landed in encores, 37 in main sets.
Traditional · Talking Heads · The Rolling Stones · Josh White · TV On The Radio · Led Zeppelin · Eumir Deodato · Jimi Hendrix · The Beatles · Argent · The Who · XTC
every cover · in order
N1
Avenu Malkenu· Traditional
Set 1 · pos 7
3:20
N2
Cities· Talking Heads
Set 1 · pos 4
19:13
N3
Loving Cup· The Rolling Stones
Set 2 · pos 14
6:57
N3
Rocky Top· The Osborne Brothers
Encore · pos 16
2:49
N4
Timber (Jerry the Mule)· Josh White
Set 1 · pos 4
10:34
N4
Golden Age· TV On The Radio
Set 2 · pos 11
10:52
N4
No Quarter· Led Zeppelin
Set 2 · pos 14
7:53
N5
Cream· Prince
Set 2 · pos 11
6:14
N5
Also Sprach Zarathustra· Eumir Deodato
Set 2 · pos 12
5:57
N6
The Old Home Place· The Dillards
Set 1 · pos 4
3:04
N6
Fire· Jimi Hendrix
Encore · pos 15
4:40
N7
Crosseyed and Painless· Talking Heads
Set 2 · pos 11
15:54
N7
Rock and Roll· The Velvet Underground
Encore · pos 15
8:01
N8
Izabella· Jimi Hendrix
Encore · pos 16
6:26
N9
Have Mercy· The Mighty Diamonds
Set 1 · pos 6
3:15
N9
Boogie on Reggae Woman· Stevie Wonder
Set 2 · pos 14
8:05
N10
I Am the Walrus· The Beatles
Encore · pos 14
6:02
N11
Also Sprach Zarathustra· Eumir Deodato
Set 2 · pos 12
5:55
N12
Cold as Ice· Foreigner
Set 1 · pos 6
0:34
N12
Love You· Syd Barrett
Set 1 · pos 7
3:05
N12
Hold Your Head Up· Argent
Set 1 · pos 8
1:47
N13
Daniel Saw the Stone· Traditional
Set 1 · pos 6
3:08
N13
La Grange· ZZ Top
Set 1 · pos 11
5:49
N13
Also Sprach Zarathustra· Eumir Deodato
Set 2 · pos 12
11:35
N13
Sparks· The Who
Set 2 · pos 14
3:08
N13
Good Times Bad Times· Led Zeppelin
Set 2 · pos 21
6:00
N13
Sweet Adeline· Traditional (barbershop)
Encore · pos 22
2:28
N14
Back in the U.S.S.R.· The Beatles
Set 1 · pos 1
5:10
N14
Highway to Hell· AC/DC
Set 2 · pos 6
3:30
N14
Purple Rain· Prince and the Revolution
Encore · pos 21
9:14
N15
Timber (Jerry the Mule)· Josh White
Set 1 · pos 2
15:23
N15
Avenu Malkenu· Traditional
Set 1 · pos 8
3:13
N15
Funky Bitch· Son Seals
Set 1 · pos 10
6:18
N15
Drowned· The Who
Set 2 · pos 14
28:57
N15
Johnny B. Goode· Chuck Berry
Set 2 · pos 17
4:31
N15
Loving Cup· The Rolling Stones
Encore · pos 20
7:24
N16
The Star-Spangled Banner· Francis Scott Key
Set 1 · pos 1
1:45
N16
Bold as Love· The Jimi Hendrix Experience
Set 1 · pos 8
6:28
N16
Suspicious Minds· Elvis Presley
Set 2 · pos 15
4:04
N16
Hold Your Head Up· Argent
Set 2 · pos 16
0:55
N16
Crosseyed and Painless· Talking Heads
Set 2 · pos 17
31:36
N16
A Day in the Life· The Beatles
Encore · pos 19
5:01
N17
Melt the Guns· XTC
Set 2 · pos 10
15:57
N17
Golden Age· TV On The Radio
Set 2 · pos 12
6:43
N19
Ya Mar· Cyril Ferguson
Set 1 · pos 10
8:22
N20
When the Circus Comes· Los Lobos
Encore · pos 15
5:11
N21
Melt the Guns· XTC
Set 2 · pos 16
8:37
§ 09by the numbers
21 nights of receipts.
What the model claimed · what Phish played. The model is keeping all of them.
Nights
21
Jul 7 – Sep 6 · 9 venues · 8 states · Madison to Commerce City
callingit · summer '26 · 01/12
Songs predicted
420
20 per night · re-rolled every morning from what had already been played
callingit · summer '26 · 02/12
Songs played
191
unique across 21 nights · 367 performances · no debuts
callingit · summer '26 · 03/12
Actual runtime
62h 31m
2h 59m / show · per phish.in · soundchecks not counted
callingit · summer '26 · 04/12
Bustouts (>30 gap)
50
9 over 500 shows · 5 over 1,000 · biggest: Melt the Guns at 2,052
callingit · summer '26 · 05/12
Harpua sightings
1
N16 · MSG · 117-show gap · not as forecast
callingit · summer '26 · 06/12
Right-set hits
76
of 420 · model put the song in the set Phish played it · 3 in the slot, 73 in the same set
callingit · summer '26 · 07/12
Right-show hits
107
of 420 · songs the model called for the right night, any set
callingit · summer '26 · 08/12
Same-night coverage
25%
105 of 420 predictions appeared on the night they were predicted
callingit · summer '26 · 09/12
Songs the model never saw
107
of 191 unique · predicted for no night · Phish played them anyway
callingit · summer '26 · 10/12
Longest performance
40:04
Carini · N10 set 2 opener · the model's longest-jam bet was N1
callingit · summer '26 · 11/12
Covers
46
Talking Heads, Beatles and Hendrix three each · one Foreigner, 34 seconds
callingit · summer '26 · 12/12
§ 10model confidence vs reality
High confidence. Low yield.
Each dot is one slot call. Y is the model's confidence; X is the slot's order across the tour. Green is a hit. The rest is, technically, also data.
landed (2)half credit (1)missed (60)
§ 11the archive
All twenty-one nights, in order.
Tap a night to see the actual setlist with the model's predictions overlaid where they landed. No "you" column. The leaderboard is on vacation.
· · ·
You should have been picking against this thing nightly.
Fall Tour picks are open. The model would like a chance to redeem itself. You should not give it one.