The algorithm studied 346 shows.
Phish wrote eight more it had never seen.
Fall Tour '26 · 8 nights · 24 slot calls (set-1 opener, set-2 opener, encore) plus a Jam Call every night, re-rolled each morning from what had already been played. The model studied. Phish improvised. Here's the gap.
2 of 24 slot calls landed.
Two slot calls landed. The Jam Call, new this fall, paid three times, and that is where almost all of the model's 976 points came from.
Three picks per night, re-rolled each morning from what had already been played. Eight nights. Every cell below is one slot the model called: green where the model and Phish lined up, faint where the model was somewhere else entirely. The Jam Call, the model's fourth pick each night, is tallied separately: 3 of 8, at 300 a piece.
Oct 2N2
Oct 3N3
Oct 4N4
Oct 6N5
Oct 7N6
Oct 9N7
Oct 12N8
Oct 11
2 nailed. 29 in the right set. +9 in the right show.
Strict scoring only pays the inner ring: exact song in the opener or closer slot. The middle ring is right show, right set, wrong slot, a real call, just not where the rubric pays. The outer ring is right show, anywhere.
Chalk Dust Torture to open set 2 on the second night in Atlantic City, 53% confidence. Phish opened set 2 with it and played it for twenty minutes. The model had it as a four-minute rocker. Right song, right slot, and a fifth of the runtime.
Tweezer Reprise to close Jacksonville at 71%, the model's most confident call of the fall. Tweezer had opened the show, come back twice more in set 1 and once in set 2, so by the encore the Reprise was less a prediction than a formality. The model is counting it.
The model called these at the wrong moment.
Right song, wrong night entirely, or right family, different song. Doesn't fit the right-show tiers in §02; still worth printing.
The model called Ruby Waves as the night's jam on N3 in Atlantic City and again on N4 in Richmond. Phish didn't play it either night. On N5 the model switched its jam call to Tweezer, and Phish played a 23-minute Ruby Waves second in set 2, in the exact position the model had it on its sheet. Right song, right set, right position, wrong slot to be paid for, and one night after the model gave up on it.
The model's jam call for the first Huntsville show was Fuego. Hurricane Isaias pushed that show from Saturday to Monday, Phish played the Sunday show first, and Fuego showed up there, second in set 2, for 27 and a half minutes, the third-longest performance of the tour. The night the model had called it, Fuego did not appear. The model would like the weather noted in the record.
The model called Mike's Song to open set 2 on the Sunday in Huntsville, with Hydrogen and Weekapaug behind it. Phish opened the Monday makeup show with Mike's Song, into Shade, into Weekapaug. Right venue, right groove, right order. The model was one calendar night early and one set too late.
46 Days to open Richmond at 48%. Phish opened with Buried Alive, which the model had called to open N1, and closed set 1 with 46 Days. The model also had Free, Wolfman's and Steam in that set, and Steam in the exact position. Its best set 1 of the tour, and the rubric paid it nothing.
Two Reprise calls, one landed. The model had it closing opening night at 64%; Phish closed opening night with S.A.N.T.O.S. and saved the Reprise for the next show. In Jacksonville the model called it at 71% and got it. It has not learned anything from this and would do the same thing again.
Six songs that skipped a tour cycle. A quiet fall, one loud letter.
Songs ranked by gap: shows since the last play. A real bustout means the song skipped a full tour (~30+ shows) before resurfacing. After a summer with fifty of them, fall had six, and the model predicted none of the six for any night. The bigger the number, the louder the model is saying nothing.
158 shows. Tucked inside Alumni Blues in the opening-night encore, the way it usually arrives. The model had Slave and Tweezer Reprise for the encore and no entry at all for a song that lives inside another song.
100 shows. Fifth in set 2 on opening night, between Mercury and Fluffhead. The model's sheet for that set was No Men, Tweezer, Chalk Dust, 2001, Disease, Twist and S.A.N.T.O.S. It got two of those in the right set. This was not one of them.
100 shows. Inside a Crosseyed and Painless sandwich in Jacksonville, which is where the model would never think to look, because the model does not think about sandwiches.
77 shows. Middle of a three-song encore in Atlantic City, between Character Zero and Tweezer Reprise. Then it opened the encore again four shows later in Jacksonville. The model, which had A Life Beyond The Dream and First Tube on N2, was not consulted either time.
36 shows. Third in set 2 on the first Huntsville night, right after a 27-minute Fuego, for fourteen and a half minutes. The model had Mike's Song opening that set. Mike's Song opened the next night instead.
32 shows. Joy to open the Richmond encore, after a 41-minute Life Saving Gun had already made the point. The model had Grind and The Howling. First Tube closed, which the model had in set 1.
Tour-wide bets the model placed on itself: 3 of 6.
Six props. Three hits. The model is very pleased about the under, would like credit for Harpua, and has no comment on the encores.
The model's pre-tour sheet ran 73 unique songs across eight nights, so it took the under on 140. Phish played 109 different songs. Under held, by a wide margin. Of the 109, the model had predicted 51 for at least one night and had never written down the other 58.
No debuts in eight shows. The model can't predict debuts, so it always says no. Two tours running, no has been right. It is beginning to think this is a skill.
No Harpua this fall. The model's hard-coded no is now 2 for 3 on the year, having lost only to the Garden in July. It considers the series settled in its favor.
Eight cover performances in eight nights (Loving Cup, Golden Age, Crosseyed twice, Rock and Roll, Good Times Bad Times, Timber, 2001) and not one of them in an encore. Loving Cup and Rock and Roll closed set 2 instead. The model's one confident bet all fall, and the encores stayed in-house.
Verified via phish.in. The longest performance of the fall was a 41-minute Life Saving Gun opening set 2 in Richmond, the first Richmond night. The model's jam-score heuristic picked the second Richmond night, which topped out at a 26-minute Golden Age. Right city, wrong night, and the model had Mr. Completely opening that set.
The model's bet for the last song of the tour was Fee. The weather moved the last show to a Monday, and Phish closed it with Wading in the Velvet Sea, Backwards Down the Number Line and Run Like an Antelope. The model had Antelope for Richmond, in set 2, five shows earlier.
Got a tour-wide bet the model should be forced to take next time? Send it to hello@callingit.live. We'll read it, fight about it, and probably print it on the super card.
12 epic jams. Seven of 8 nights peaked in set 2.
Phish played 136 songs across 8 nights, counting every leg of every sandwich. 64 of them broke 10 minutes. 30 broke 15. 12 broke 20. The longest song of the night landed in set 2 on 7 of 8 nights. Set 2 averaged 13:07 per song, set 1 averaged 10:47. The model called the jam on three of the eight nights, which is three more than it has ever managed before.
7 of 8 nights peaked in set 2.
Strip the song names away and a shape repeats. Almost every night the band built one long Type II departure, a jam that leaves the written song behind and holds an open, escalating peak, and almost always landed it in set 2. The model studies which songs get played. This is the other half: which plays became the moment.
The longest jam of the run, and its center of gravity. 41 minutes that started as a song and ended somewhere else entirely.
8 covers in 8 nights. 1 artists got two each.
The model has no per-show cover prediction. It bet "yes" on the cover-closed-encore prop and, for the first time, lost it: eight covers in eight nights and every one of them stayed inside the sets. It did not see two Crosseyeds in one set coming, and it still does not know what 2001 is doing in Richmond. 0 covers landed in encores, 8 in main sets.
8 nights of receipts.
What the model claimed · what Phish played. The model is keeping all of them.
High confidence. Low yield.
Each dot is one slot call. Y is the model's confidence; X is the slot's order across the tour. Green is a hit. The rest is, technically, also data.
All eight nights, in order.
Tap a night to see the actual setlist with the model's predictions overlaid where they landed. No "you" column. The leaderboard is on vacation.
You should have been picking against this thing nightly.
New Year's Run picks are open. The model would like a chance to redeem itself. You should not give it one.
Make your first picks →thank you for picking against the algorithm in public.