Setlist Predictions · Summer Tour 2026 · Night 9 of 21 · played

Phish Setlist Prediction for Merriweather Post Pavilion, Jul 18, 2026

This show has been played. Below is what our machine-learning model called for Merriweather Post Pavilion in Columbia, MD on Jul 18, 2026 (night 1 of a 2-night stand), frozen the morning of the show. Trained on 300+ shows from Phish's modern era (since 2019), it weighs song frequency, set position, gap pressure, and venue history. The actual setlist is on phish.net. How the call held up, night by night, is in the Summer Tour 2026 wrap.

Have Mercy at a 242-show gap, inside a McGrupp sandwich. The model had Tweezer Reprise closing at 72%; Phish closed with Antelope. The model has mostly stopped calling the Reprise on gut feel.

Predicted Set 1

  1. The Moma Dance
  2. Free
  3. Back on the Train
  4. Wolfman's Brother
  5. Run Like an Antelope
  6. Tube
  7. Mike's Song
  8. Sigma Oasis
  9. Funky Bitch
  10. Weekapaug Groove
  11. First Tube

Predicted Set 2

  1. Soul Planet
  2. Chalk Dust Torture
  3. Ruby Waves
  4. Twist
  5. Tweezer
  6. What's the Use?
  7. Slave to the Traffic Light

Predicted Encore

  1. Possum
  2. Tweezer Reprise

Frequently asked

What did the model predict Phish would open with at Merriweather Post Pavilion on Jul 18, 2026?

The model's Set 1 opener call, frozen before the show, was "The Moma Dance".

What did the model predict for the second set at Merriweather Post Pavilion?

The model's Set 2 sheet led with Soul Planet, Chalk Dust Torture, Ruby Waves, Twist, Tweezer.

What did the model predict would close the show at Merriweather Post Pavilion?

The model's encore prediction was Possum, Tweezer Reprise.

How did the model do at Merriweather Post Pavilion on Jul 18, 2026?

Have Mercy at a 242-show gap, inside a McGrupp sandwich. The model had Tweezer Reprise closing at 72%; Phish closed with Antelope. The model has mostly stopped calling the Reprise on gut feel.

When did Phish play Merriweather Post Pavilion on Summer Tour 2026?

Jul 18, 2026, night 1 of a 2-night stand at Merriweather Post Pavilion in Columbia, MD.

So how did the model do?

Every call from Summer Tour 2026, scored against what Phish actually played: the hits, the near misses, and the bustouts nobody saw coming.

Read the Summer Tour 2026 wrap →

More Phish Summer Tour 2026 predictions

← Coastal Credit Union Music Park at Walnut Creek, Jul 17, 2026Merriweather Post Pavilion, Jul 19, 2026 →

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