Setlist Predictions · Sphere Residency 2026 · Night 1 of 9 · played

Phish Setlist Prediction for Sphere, Apr 16, 2026

This show has been played. Below is what our machine-learning model called for Sphere in Las Vegas, NV on Apr 16, 2026 (a one-night stop), frozen the morning of the show. Trained on 300+ shows from Phish's modern era (since 2019), it weighs song frequency, set position, gap pressure, and venue history. The actual setlist is on phish.net. How the call held up, night by night, is in the Sphere Residency 2026 wrap.

Space Oddity in the encore: a Bowie cover. Not in the model's 268-song catalog.

Predicted Set 1

  1. Carini
  2. Wolfman's Brother
  3. Maze
  4. Bathtub Gin
  5. Steam
  6. Free
  7. Stash
  8. Tube
  9. Back on the Train
  10. Theme from the Bottom
  11. Tweezer Reprise

Predicted Set 2

  1. Set Your Soul Free
  2. Tweezer
  3. Ruby Waves
  4. Twist
  5. Simple
  6. A Wave of Hope
  7. Slave to the Traffic Light

Predicted Encore

  1. First Tube
  2. Wilson

Frequently asked

What did the model predict Phish would open with at Sphere on Apr 16, 2026?

The model's Set 1 opener call, frozen before the show, was "Carini".

What did the model predict for the second set at Sphere?

The model's Set 2 sheet led with Set Your Soul Free, Tweezer, Ruby Waves, Twist, Simple.

What did the model predict would close the show at Sphere?

The model's encore prediction was First Tube, Wilson.

How did the model do at Sphere on Apr 16, 2026?

Space Oddity in the encore: a Bowie cover. Not in the model's 268-song catalog.

When did Phish play Sphere on Sphere Residency 2026?

Apr 16, 2026, a one-night stop at Sphere in Las Vegas, NV.

So how did the model do?

Every call from Sphere Residency 2026, scored against what Phish actually played: the hits, the near misses, and the bustouts nobody saw coming.

Read the Sphere Residency 2026 wrap →

More Phish Sphere Residency 2026 predictions

Sphere, Apr 17, 2026 →

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